A Tide In The Affairs Of Men..

In my last post, I mentioned how difficult it is to separate fortune from skill in both investment and commercial finance. It is not that luck will not play a role in business success. Actually, most successful individuals and businesses can indicate a heart stroke of all the best that got them began.

In fact, this was the reason I composed my book on tactical risk taking. If the essence of risk taking is that you are going to be right a few of the time and wrong the rest of the time, here’s what I see separating good risk takers from bad ones. When good risk taking organizations get lucky and find out from risk taking upside, they find ways to construct on that upside. When they are confronted with unpleasant surprises, they have the ability to minimize their move and deficits on. In option terminology, successful risk takers create their own call options to augment upside risk and put options to reduce downside risk. Of course, I am not the first ever to recognize this.

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There is a tide in the affairs of men. Is bound in shallows and in miseries. Or lose our ventures. Brutus had an outstanding knowledge of risk taking (though I don’t quite know where you can place the stabbing of Julius Caesar in the chance taking size). Put in less lofty conditions, each folks will be blessed with all the best in our investment and business endeavors at some point in time. What we should do with this fortune shall determine whether it leaves a lasting tag or not. In the same vein, each folks may also be unlucky sooner or later in time and exactly how prepared we are for the contingency will determine whether it will bring us down or just dent us.

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For a fixed stock of money, the price-level drops (reflecting the upsurge in the marketplace value of money); that is, the shock is deflationary. In short, the model produces something that resembles what we should experience in the recent tough economy. Now, let’s imagine that these expectations stay stubbornly depressed. What are the policy implications? Would it help easily told you that this is a model where increasing authorities spending (on investment), or lowering the interest (on government securities), or increasing the inflation rate, all serve to activate real economic activity?

It’s tempting, isn’t it? The economy is stressed out and you have the various tools to “fix” it. But hold on a minute. Before proceeding with your government stimulus plan, shouldn’t you first ask why expectations seem to be so stubbornly depressed? At the risk of oversimplifying, suppose there are two possible answers to the relevant question. One might picture a muted enthusiasm for Federal government stimulus under this interpretation rather. Under this interpretation–which is what I think most people have in mind when they talk about deficient demand–there is a solid case to be made for government intervention.